An online hazard prediction test demonstrates differences in the ability to identify hazardous situations between different driving groups

Petya Ventsislavova, Tova Rosenbloom, Joost Leunissen, Yishai Spivak, David Crundall

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Previous research has found that the traditional approach to measuring hazard perception, as used by the UK Government, does not necessarily transfer well to other countries. The speeded response times of a hazard perception test were susceptible to threshold bias, differentiating drivers according to cultural background more than driving experience. An alternative method–the hazard prediction test–appears to mitigate these problems when used across different countries. The current study applies the hazard prediction methodology to a new cultural context (Israel), delivered via an online platform. A further innovation was to include both hazardous and non-hazardous trials allowing measures of criterion and sensitivity parameters of the Signal Detection Theory to be calculated. In total, 74 participants (43 experienced and 31 novices) watched 26 hazard prediction clips that had been filmed in Tel Aviv (Israel), 13 of which contained cues to genuine hazards. Each hazardous clip was occluded prior to the hazardous situation fully materialising, though with sufficient evidence that any participant who was looking in the right place at the right time would be able to correctly identify the unfolding hazard. Participants were first asked to identify whether there was a hazard (a binary decision), and then to predict how the traffic situation was going to develop by choosing one of four options provided after each video. As hypothesised, experienced drivers outperformed novices in the multiple-choice prediction question, provided that they had correctly identified that the clip contained a hazard in the first question. Novices were poor at selecting the correct multiple-choice option, regardless of whether they correctly identified that the clip contained a hazard. Both driving experience and hazard sensitivity significantly predicted multiple-choice accuracy, though criterion did not. The newly developed online test was successful in differentiating between experienced and novice driver groups for accuracy in prediction. These results support the roll-out of the hazard prediction methodology across different countries. Practitioner summary: This study provides new insights into how to develop an online hazard prediction test suitable for international export. The results suggest that this newly developed test is successful in differentiating between experienced and novice drivers. This raises the possibilit y of assessing and training drivers on a global scale.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-19
Number of pages20
Publication statusPublished - 11 Jan 2022


  • Hazard prediction online assessment driving experience Signal Detection Theory

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