Forecasting errors in the averseness of apologizing

Apologizing is often seen as the appropriate response after a transgression
for perpetrators. Yet, despite the positive effects that apologies elicit after
situations of conflict, they are not always delivered easily. We argue that this is
due—at least in part—to perpetrators overestimating the averseness of apologizing,
thus committing a forecasting error. Across two laboratory experiments and one
autobiographical recall study, we demonstrate that perpetrators overestimate the
averseness they will experience when apologizing compared to the averseness they
experience when they actually apologize. Moreover, we show that this effect is
driven by a misconstrual of the effects of an apology. Perpetrators overestimate the
potentially negative effects of apologizing while simultaneously underestimating
the potentially positive effects of apologizing. This forecasting error may have a
negative effect on the initiation of the reconciliation process, due to perpetrators
believing that apologizing is more averse than it actually is.