Preparing for the Future: Reassessing the Possibility of Violence Emanating From Tibetan Exile Communities in India

In his 1997 analysis of the history of Tibetan and Chinese relations (The Snow Lion and the Dragon), Melvyn Goldstein advised in his concluding chapter that Tibetans were unlikely to indefinitely put up with the Chinese occupation of Tibet without resorting to violence. However, despite continuing speculation, more widespread or sustained campaigns of violence have largely failed to materialize. The principle objectives of this study are to establish why the scale of violence that Goldstein warned about has so far failed to emerge; and to assess whether existing evidence supports or undermines claims that violence may in the future emanate from Tibetan exile communities in India. It will be argued that previous analyses have been premised on a relatively narrow assessment of the situation and context, and that a more informed and nuanced evaluation of the potential for future violence requires comprehensive analysis of a much wider range of factors.